I, like most Americans, even the Republicans, have not closely followed the debates of the candidates for their parties nomination for President of these United States. But, we do read the newspapers, watch Jay Leno and the other comedians that appear nightly on our TV screens, and obtain our impression of these candidates from their perspective. Although it is clear that there is a bias in the media toward the Democrats in the said media, it also clear that a candidate can not pull a goof that provides a humorous sound bite that can be played over and over again and again by the media. It is sad that such a moment can sink a presidential hopeful but, that's the way the modern system works.
Good examples of such a slip up is reflected in the rise and fall of Perry and Cain. Both at the top of the polls at one time, but now sinking rapidly. And the loss has nothing to do with their policies, which the average voter doesn't understand, or care too, but largely on the embarrassing sound bites that were generated in the debates and in TV interviews. These brief lapses can be used to make the candidate look stupid, or at the least not very knowledgeable, about various subjects which confront the nation. Of course the sexual harassment charge against Cain hasn't helped either.
Remember Sarah Palin. She was sunk in an interview on TV during the last presidential race. Whether it is justified or not, she came off as totally unprepared for national responsibility as VP. She was sort of sandbagged by the interviewer ( I think it was Dianne Sawyer). For the Jay Leno types she provided fodder for the humor mill for months, and still does now and then, based almost completely on a few sound bites that she uttered when caught on camera. In reality, that experience sunk any presidential aspirations she ever had.
Michelle has kind of gone the same route. Opening her mouth too often and putting her foot in it. Remember her. She was once high in the polls, but has sunk like a rock lately. Tune in to Letterman or Leno and you will get a dose of anti Michelle jokes, that is when they're not bashing Cain and Perry.
The two candidates that seem to have dealt with this issue best are Newt and Mitt. Although both have records that can be attacked, (Newt's is personal, Mitt's is the perception of flip/flopping on issues), and they are attacked almost every night on the late night shows, they haven't provided the sound bites that the comedians love to air. At least so far. They are probably experienced enough to understand the problem a national election entails and have managed to not provide grist for the humor mile. As a result they are now moving to the top of the leader board. Likely one of them will end up with the Republican nomination. That is if they can keep their respective noses clean. Of the two candidates Newt has the most consistent record. You know where he stands and he articulates it well. So, maybe that will propel him into the nomination.
Both of them have political records that they can stand on in a run against Obama, if they get a fair shake from the media. But, that is not likely to happen. So, they need a lot of money to carry a message of their positions to the voters and somehow to overcome their past shortcomings from vicious attack ads that we all know are coming. Especially if the race develops so the Democrats feel threatened.
Of course it's still a while before the primaries in the various states gets under way, so anything can happen. The question; can they beat Obama in the general election? Not clear to me at this point that either of them can. Obama has a built in advantage that will be hard to overcome. But, that's the subject of another post.
Update:
It seems that Newt is slowly fading in the wind. He just doesn't seem to have the money to spend, or the organization, to overcome the bad publicity being generated by Mitt's backers. I'm not sure, but it really looks like, at this point, that Newt is dead meat. But, the same could have been said for Rick Santorum just a few weeks ago. But sudden victories in the last primaries have suddenly raised him up as the true conservative challanger to Mitt.
One thing is clear, this is turning into an interesting campaign. Of course Obama couldn't be more pleased as the Republicans tear each other apart seeking the nomination.
The field is narrowing. There really only seems to be three viable contenders remaining.
From this perspective I don't see any of the candidates overcoming the well financed drive by Mitt Romney to capture the Republican nomination. He has been ahead in the polls from the beginning and still holds that position. Right now he leads in delegates and is projected to capture a lot more in the coming primaries.
The question for Republicans comes down to which of the candidates can win in November. I believe that the support for Rick Santorum is not widespread enough to capture the voters that stand on the middle of the road, especially on social issues. The female vote (over half the voters) seems to hang, rationally or not, on the candidates position on abortion (labeled "choice" in order to take the sting out). They seem to equate the right to an abortion on demand as fundamental to their very overall rights in our society i.e. "Women's Rights".
I just don't see an outspoken social conservative having enough of a wide spread appeal among the middle of the road voters to carry Santorum to the White House. I believe that the majority of the voters are fiscal conservatives, but much more liberal in their view on social issues. Any candidate the rests their campaign on conservative social issues might win the Republican nomination, but will not win in a national election.
Of course, it is essential these days to be a television star. By that I mean the candidate must come over like gang busters on TV. Think of John Kennedy, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and currently Obama. People like Jefferson, Lincoln, Madison, and many other former presidents would never have been elected in today's media driven campaigns. Even Lincoln with his purported raspy voice likely wouldn't have made it against the fiery oratory of Douglas.
John Paul keeps hanging in there. Primarily to just get his message across. At least that's the only reason I see. He is essentially a Libertarian, not a Republican at all. While that approach to government is really much more aligned to the concept of our founding fathers, and the actual constitution, it just doesn't play in today's environment. Like it or not, I just don't believe that the Libertarian philosophy would make a very effective approach to government in today's world and the voters are much too acclimated to government as everybody's caretaker to buy into the almost hands off approach by government embraced by the Libertarians.
The written constitution almost doesn't exist anymore. Today this nation is ruled by common law more than by the constitution. Court decisions down through the years, especially post WWII, have expanded the role of the federal government way beyond what could reasonably be allowed by the written constitution. Essentially, the constitution has been amended by court decree. The tenth amendment is almost completely ignored. If one reads the constitution you would be hard pressed to find justification for the federal government involvement in education, reproductive issues, gas mileage dictates for cars, how the states handle their prison system, the endangered species act and a host of other federal decrees. Section 8 Article 1 of the constitution spells out the specific powers of the federal government and the first 10 amendments specifically limit that power.
Let us admit. The next election is all about Obama. It really doesn't matter who the Republicans run, the issue will be whether the voters are happy or not with Obama. Right now I think Obama is holding his own. The economy is slowly improving, whether he had anything to do with it or not, he will get the credit. Nothing earth shattering has happened in the world at large that jars the American People to any extent, some talk radio talk show pundits not withstanding. Baring some catastrophic event in the future, my crystal ball says that the Republicans will have to wait another four years to make a legitimate run at the White House. The race against any incumbent president boils down to a referendum on the president and not any real comparisons between the two major candidates. If the economy turns south, then Obama could be in trouble. I'm not sure what the general public feels about Obamacare, but I sense it isn't a big enough issue to get him cast out of office.
