Let's continue our journey into the future and see where it leads.
Medicine and it's impact on society:
The strides in medicine over the foreseeable future will be astounding. Most of the things that kill us now will no longer present a problem. Cancer, at least most kinds, Alzheimer, heart disease, emphysema and other deadly diseases will be conquered. Some by advanced surgical methods, but most by developing immunization methods to prevent the disease to begin with. But, a cautionary thought here. History has shown that the little buggers that cause a lot of mankind's diseases and misery have a habit of mutating to be resistant to the current Sera and they go on living and wrecking havoc. Given that history, I don't think we will ever totally overcome all the various known and as yet unknown diseases that will occur in the future.
I think the field of nanotechnology has a real chance to be the future for large fields of medicine. Imagine the little machines programmed to selectively attack and remove bad growths in the body and to close small ruptures in blood vessels. They could repair damaged nerves, or even repair nerves that have been severed due to accidents. They will likely do a lot more than that. The possibilities are almost unbounded.
Interesting experimental programs are underway now to provide artificial limbs which will react just as the real limb. I expect that the field of cybernetics, or robotics if you wish, will allow the attachment of artificial limbs that react to the wearers impulses just as an actual arm or leg. The technology depicted in Star Wars is likely in our future. However, somewhere in the future we may find a way to actually grow limbs, who knows. That would be a better outcome.
Perhaps the stem cell research will develop as everybody hopes and we will be able to grow new organs that will not be subject to the rejection problems now present with organ transplants. And, perhaps repair spinal cord injuries as some have speculated. Whether that avenue of research is fruitful or not, we will find a way to replace failing organs in the future without having to rely on another persons gift to do so. If we can understand an organs functions, then we likely could build a machine that can duplicate those functions. We already know a lot and can duplicate, to some extent, the functions of the heart and kidneys. The future research and development will result in artificial hearts and kidneys that can fit in the body and effectively replace the living organs. The liver, pancreas and other essential organs will follow.
One of the most interesting fields of study will discover the mechanism the causes our bodies to grow and age, and we will learn how to slow the process or even to regulate it completely so that we could be forever young. Eternal Life. Wow, what could be better? Of course people will still be vulnerable to resistant diseases, accidents, suicides, murder, war related trauma and other violent ways to end life. But, advances in medicine, engineering and other sciences will reduce those, to some extent, from our present experience.
In the future I feel sure that women will not have to bear their children. We will be able to create artificial wombs that will nurture the fetus as it grows. I have no clue how this will be implemented but, I feel sure it's coming. Whether this method will be adopted on a wide spread bases is a matter of public policy and individual preference. I think there will be a lot of women who will wish for a child, but just as soon not go through the discomfort and pain of carrying and delivering it. We will be able to manipulate the DNA of the unborn to select the sex, characteristics of the child, and to eliminate any inherent birth defects. I.e. a custom made child. Sounds like the plot of a SciFi movie does't it?
All of this sounds like a blessing, but is it really? The advances that will be made in medicine will result in the population of the world living longer and longer lifetimes. This is especially true if we discover the secrets of aging and learn to slow it down or stop it altogether. Overpopulation, already looming as a problem, will be the first and most damaging of the outcomes, especially in the advanced nations where these medical advances will be first applied. Population in the industrialized worlds will explode, that is until something is done to slow it down, either voluntarily or by the state (see China). Starvation, especially among the poor and the third world countries may be the result, as all the planets resources are diverted to feed the ever growing numbers of people. The nations that have the strong military will take what they need from the weak when the need becomes desperate. World wide riots will result as the scarcity of resources begins to impact the population as a whole. Strong central governments will need to arise with central planning and power to meet the crises. Draconian measures will be applied, with the resulting abuses of power that always results when too much power is deposited into a few hands.
The long term effects on the human species could turn out to have a negative outcome, and probably will. Young people would be frozen out of careers with futures. And, there are fewer and fewer young people being born as population controls come into being. New ways of doing things would be squashed by the older generation who would now stay in their jobs for long periods of time. After all, the older generation brings vast experience and longevity to the work place. Sometimes a good thing, but not always. After a while we get set in our ways and think that there is no better way to do things. It's usually the younger minds that challenge the status quo. Certainly such programs as Social Security and Medicare will have to be rethought, even over the dead bodies of the AARP and it's ilk. If we're living into our hundreds and beyond, we certainly can't be retiring in our sixties and living off a rapidly dwindling younger working class. That's already a problem today. Imagine what it would be like if our lifespan were doubled, or more.
When you consider history and the advances in critical thinking that occurred, what stands out is that the significant leapfrogs in thinking were generated by the great minds when they were young. Einstein, Newton, Neils Bohr, Copernicus and Kepler along with many others in scientific world conceived of their breakthrough concepts while young men. Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft and Twitter were not conceived in the big laboratories of IBM, at Barns and Noble, Sears or any other of the established well staffed big name companies, but by young entrepreneurs looking for a new way to do things.
The young are, and have always been, the driving force behind political change, right or wrong. They are the ones who demonstrate in the streets, who lead the protests against some real or imagined wrong or injustice. They have not always been right, in fact they often are acting out of pure self interest, but they are sometimes effective in the long run. They have always represented a large section of the total population which gives them significant political power. But, under this scenario that will be less and less true. Population restrictions and much longer lives of older people, in thought if not in appearance, will make the young become far less significant. As a result there will be less and less social changes in our political structure. There will be no outraged young mob that will congregate, march in the streets, and demonstrate to bring about social change in this new dictatorship that will emerge.
I guess I don't believe in the future as depicted by Gene Roddenberry in Star Trek. I don't think mankind will reach condition where poverty, crime, oppression, and hunger are not with us, whether we live longer or not. There will always be small and large dictators in our world. The third world dictators will always be with us and will spread misery among the people of their countries. The Stalins, Hitlers and their ilk will always arise, especially as resources become scarce and discontent rises.In fact I don't see a real change from the political conditions that exist today. The names may change, but the jockeying for power among nations, religions and political factions will continue. We are not entering Utopia.
Part 3 to follow.
