There seems to be a consensus among the talking heads at the Fox News Network and CNN that North Korea, in the person of Kim Jung-un is crazy, or at least unstable. I think the characterization of the little guy with the funny haircut is far from true. If Kim is crazy he's crazy like a fox.
What he and his father Kim Jong-il and his grandfather Kim Il-Sung have done is played the western world, and the United States in particular, like a well tuned harp.
Perhaps a little review of the history will help. After WWII Korea, after being liberated from Japan, was occupied by two powers. By agreement the United States would occupy territory south of the 38th parallel and the Soviet Union would occupy north of that line. There was some talk about a general election to solidify the country which had the same outcome as the same promises by the Soviets concerning eastern Europe. The Soviets then established a puppet state in the north and named Kim il-Sung as the head. They thought they had a puppet they could control. Later, when they tried to replace him, they found that they had lost control of their puppet.
However, with the Soviets help the North was supported and armed with Soviet military equipment and advisors. The Chinese, glad to have a buffer between a western power and themselves were very supportive of North Korea.
That became really evident when the United Nations forces reached the Yalu River during the Korean War and the Chinese reacted with a huge force. They did not want a western leaning country bordering China. During the Korean War the Chinese warned the Americans not to cross the 38th parallel and move to the borders of China, but MacArthur chose to ignore the warnings. When you look at the present situation, it is evident that feeling is still the overriding consideration of the Chinese today. It drives their foreign policy concerning Korea and the United States/ They will not continence a western power at their borders. It overrides every other consideration. When we think that economics or sanctions will deter the Chinese from that stance, then we're just blowing smoke.
Early on the Kims, articulated by Kim Jong-il, developed the policy of Songun (military first). That policy has been picked up and carried forward by his son Kim Jong-un. As a result the North Koreans have the 4th largest military force in the world. Some 1,106,000 on active duty with 8,389,000 in reserve. They also have huge tank, artillery and mechanized forces. As we all know they now have developed nuclear weapons and the missile force to deliver them.
Why do they spend so much of their countries resources on the military and the hugely expensive program to develop nuclear weapons and ICBMs? The answer is simple. They want to insure that they will not be another Iraq. They watched what happened there and Kim doesn't want to be another Saddam. His position is quite clear. If Iraq had a nuclear arsenal, the Americans would have never have invaded the country. So he sees a nuclear capability and a means to deliver a bomb on the United States itself is the greatest deterrent for aggressive action against his country.
Kim Jong-il managed an agreement with Bill Clinton in 1994 to curtail his nuclear bomb program for aid. It isn't clear he ever did really comply as there was no means to monitor the program. But, when his father died, the push to develop an atomic bomb was accelerated under Kim Jong-un. The United States and most of the western world was decrying their pursuit of atomic weapons, threatening them with sanctions. But, all the wringing of hands by the western powers hasn't made a dent in their efforts. The pundits think that China should step in and put a stop to the effort, but China has it's own agenda. And. China isn't likely to stand by and allow western powers to move against North Korea militarily.
Now they have the bomb, even a thermonuclear version, and a long way toward perfecting the missiles to deliver that bomb directly to the American mainland. They have demonstrated that they can reach Japan already.
So the little guy with the funny haircut is sitting in pretty good position at the moment. He got there because of a lot of missteps by the United States since the end of WWII. I'm afraid we're in a pickle now. Damned if we do and Damned if we don't do something about North Korea. I don't think Kim is suicidal, so I don't think he would unilaterally launch an attack against the United States. But, the North Koreans could sell their technology to rogue nations that have a different view of the world.
