Let's look into the future Part 3

Is another world war coming? No one can be sure, but history tells us that the chances are good that it will. The question then is how will it start, how extensive will it be and how much damage will result.  
            In the foreseeable future the main wars will be along the lines that is happening  now; relativity small wars by global standards, limited to a small region and not threatening the large nations. They will be essentially gorilla type wars, with no defined front lines and difficulty identifying friend from foe. So far the larger nations have not confronted each other in an overt way in the middle of these wars, even if they have supplied the arms to fight them.  As long as it stays that way a global conflagration will be avoided. But, history says that is not likely to last.
           What is likely to happen sometime in the future is the large and militarily powerful nations will be drawn into conflict the same way that it has happened so often in the past. We will end up fighting a global war that nobody really wanted, over issues that aren't really defined, because of circumstances that no one saw coming and due to misunderstanding of the intentions of others. 
           The recent experience of WWI is a good example of a single incident escalating, whereby a single assassination set off a chain of events that engulfed the world in a disastrous war, that solved nothing, only setting the conditions for another world war.  It embroiled Britain and America in a war they really had no stake in, with no obligation from treaty commitments to enter, resulting in thousands of lives lost and a huge amounts of money spent from the treasuries. In the end it changed the face of Europe and resulted in America becoming a major power in the world. It caused the downfall of the Romanov dynasty and the growth of communism and the USSR. The Austrian-Hungarian Empire ceased to exist, setting up regional conflicts that are still being played out. Of course they weren't much of an empire by the time of WWI anyway, but they were the nation that sparked the great war. It left Germany in such poor conditions that it made the rise of National Socialism, with Hitler as it's head, much easier to accomplish, perhaps even inevitable. 
        World War II is an example of the conditions that closely align to today's climate.  Nations misreading the intentions and resolve of other nations regarding their reactions to events was really the catalyst that fueled the actions leading to the global war. Hitler invaded the Rhineland with no opposition.  He could have been stopped right there, the German Army had orders to withdraw if opposed. But, France, with the largest land army on the continent, didn't act. After taking in Austria, Hitler then threatened Czechoslovakia, and England's Chamberlain ceded the most vital part of  Czech territory in order to achieve "Peace in Our Time". Of course in very little time the rest of Czechoslovakia fell to the Germans. Hitler then made a bad assumption.  The German Army invaded Poland thinking that the French and English did not have the will to intervene.  But, this time they acted and the war in Europe erupted.  France fell pretty fast, leaving England to face the Germans alone. Subsequently Hitler made another major miscalculation and invaded the USSR while England was still at his back, living and breathing.  At that point I think his doom was sealed. He had totally underestimated the will, and perhaps more importantly, the huge armies and the manufacturing capabilities of the Soviets. He now had a two front war on his hands,which is almost always a disaster.  Then, to add to the range of stupid blunders, he declared war on the United States. A move that FDR was eagerly wishing for. 
         The United States entered the war due to a total miscalculation on Japans part. She assumed that the US did not have the will or the guts to fight a prolonged war, and by destroying the American fleet at Pearl Harbor and early victories in the Pacific she could get an advantageous treaty. One that would give them free rein in the Pacific. She thought of the American people as soft and corrupt. But, as Adm. Yamamoto feared, all they did was awaken a sleeping tiger. 
        One can easily picture several scenarios that exists at this time that might possibly be the spark that ignites a global conflict. The situation among the middle eastern Muslim nations and Israel is a tender box that shouldn't be ignored. Iran, and soon it's close ally Iraq, are open about their determination to see Israel wiped off the face of the earth. An escalating threat to Israel is looming more ominous with the obvious development of a nuclear weapon by Iran, with a way to deliver it.  Israel may very well deliver a preemptive strike at the nuclear facilities in Iran.  They've done it before. However, they might act too late, because Iran may have nuclear  tipped missiles already operational. Under the nuclear umbrella Iran and Iraq, and perhaps the newly formed Arab League, may send massive armies against Israel in retaliation (as if they needed an excuse).  The USA is committed to the support of Israel and with the help of American support the attack could be turned back.  Iran and the Arab League faced with losing the war could launch it's nuclear arsenal against Israel and against the American Carrier battle group operating in the Persian Gulf, which they perceive as being Israel allies.   Now, whether the attack on the battle group will succeed depends on whether the defensive features contained within the battle groups are as good as they have been touted. But, in any event the cat is out of the bag.  The carrier battle groups that survive the nuclear attack will launch strikes against Iran, Iraq and other members of the Arab League that entered the war. The FA18's (or F35's or whatever the Navy's primary strike fighter is at the time) will roll and the missile cruisers will start raining destruction. I don't think that the initial strikes will be nuclear, but with modern technology they will be very effective. The Air Force with finally have something to do; the B2's will be airborne. Because Israel has been so crippled by the nuclear strikes from Iran and because the US was directly attacked by the Arab League, the US sends in the marines to defeat the the current regimes.  What could happen next is anybodies guess.  It could develop as Russia, fearing the presence of the American military on their very borders, counters with land troops of it's own.  And thus, it begins. China, perhaps concerned with the cut off of it's oil supply from the middle east enters the war on the side of Russia, although I would like to think that China would not be drawn in.  Europe and Britain soon follow the US into the mess. I believe the great powers will try to refrain from the use of nuclear weapons, at least in the beginning.  The consequences are just too awful to contemplate. It should be remembered that all the WWII combatants refrained from the use of poison gas during that war, a tactic that was used liberally in the WW I and outlawed in the Geneva Convention. So there is hope.  However, if the war proceeds on for a period of time and one side is in dire straights, then they may try the nuclear option out of desperation.   
        A greater tinder box is sitting in North Korea.  It isn't hard to imagine that the north will launch another invasion of the south, perhaps this time with nuclear weapons. They have threatened to do so many times in the recent past. North Korea has a huge well equipped army and will sweep into the south quickly and successfully.  Thousands of Americans will be killed in the initial assault.  The Americans will retaliate and we will have another Korean War, only this time with far more fearsome weapons.  Determined to never let this happen again, the Americans decide that the North Korean government must be eliminated and the territory reunited with the south. I fear that this course of action will drag China into the war in a big way just as it did before and the escalation starts. Once the US and China are engaged the rest of the major world powers may well be dragged in. 
         Another, and perhaps scarier problem exists in the Chinese claim to Taiwan. It is clear that the Chinese intend to take Taiwan back into mainland China.  But, the current Taiwanese government has no plans to allow that to happen.  The United States has consistently supported Taiwan.  We have sent warships down the straight between China and Taiwan several times to enforce our support. But, if the Chinese decide to force the issue by force of arms, the threat of a major war between the US and China is a real possibility, depending on our response. I don't believe that the US will allow Taiwan to be overrun. We should hope that the Chinese do not misread our resolve about that issue.  This is a problem that can be resolved by diplomatic means, at least I hope so.
         It may not play out that way, of course, but the seeds of a global conflict are present in many places.  Nations not trusting each other or with entirely different goals and political positions. The tinder boxes, at the present time, are the middle east, Taiwan and North Korea. That may change in the future, and likely will.  Consider the ever increasing hostility of  Russia toward the United States under the leadership of Putin, apparently the President for Life for all practical purposes and increasingly looking more like Stalin. A lot of South America is not our friend.  Socialist governments seem to be on the rise there, generally hostile to America. 
        The one thing that may restrain China from hostilities with the US is the fact that we owe them so much money. If that debt were cancelled by war, it might throw the Chinese economy into a tailspin. That's in addition to the fact that we're such a large consumer of Chinese products, and it mustn't be forgotten that the Chinese own a lot of America.  Another factor is that we depend on China to supply a vast number of consumer products that we no longer make ourselves, and no longer have the capability to make, because we have long ago shipped it overseas. And, the US has a lot of investment in China. It would not be in America's or China's best interest to get into a war from purely economic reasons.  We can only hope that China feels no real need to react to a war in North Korea as being possibly hostile to them or that they push the Taiwanese issue into a shooting war. 
          How will this war be fought?  Not like the last great war, that's for sure. Although the Generals will likely think that way in the beginning. I don't think you will see large land armies pitted against each other as in WWII and Korea. Such a tactic will be suicidal considering the weaponry that is currently available, and are likely to be developed in the future, to the Armies and Navies of the advanced nations. I don't think that we will see large aircraft raids dropping bombs on cities as was done by Germany and the Allies in WWII. Modern weapons are achieving greater and greater accuracy, which will result in concentration on militarily important sites with a far greater probability of damage or destruction of the target.  We can destroy the same critical target now with one bomb or missile that took squadrons of planes to destroy in WWII.  Drones are now in play and will continue to advance in capability so that we will see greater and greater use of aircraft controlled remotely. Ground based weapons will also join the robotics game, with tanks that don't require crews and other remotely controlled weapons available to the ground forces. 
          The surface Navies will likely be one of  the first primary targets at the outbreak of hostilities.  The power that can be launched from the seas is too much to ignore.  Depending on the type of weapons used and the defensive capability of the fleet, the outcome could be in doubt.  If the war has already escalated into a nuclear confrontation, it is likely the surface fleet will not exist very long. That will leave the Navy with only the undersea boats with their nuclear arsenal.  It is possible that the Navy will develop other types of ships than the conventional submarine by the time of a new global conflict, so that they will have a vast choice of weapons and delivery methods available that can survive the first few months of a future war. The Navy will then be the only one of the three services that has long range striking capability.  
          Land based airfields, command centers, fuel storage sites, strategic manufacturing and missile launch sites will not survive the initial phases of a global war. They would have long since been identified and targeted for destruction.  It is unlikely that we will ever be able to build defensive capability to stop an all out attack on these facilities. For anything like conventional air power to survive, the ground based facilities will have to be dug into mountains and hardened against weapons specifically designed to destroy such installations. 
          Just as control of the sky above the battle field was important, almost essential, in the recent past, the shift will be upward to space. The first thing that will attacked at outbreak of hostilities will be the satellites in synchronous and nonsynchronous orbit that provide detailed observations and the GPS system that provides guidance. It will be essential to deny the enemy the capability that the intelligence delivered from these sources, and the guidance capability they provide missiles and other weapons, be eliminated.          
        That will spawn a space war as each side strives to  gain command of the space above the battle field. A whole new class of weapon systems will emerge specifically designed to provide space superiority. At the same time each side will attempt to develop methods to provide the "spy in the sky" capability. It will look a lot like WWI aviation, relatively primitive in the beginning, but reaching higher levels of sophistication in a fairly short time.
          We have just seen the beginning of the development of "smart bombs", guided missiles, and unmanned  aircraft.   As the advances in intelligent weapons continues to grow, their effectiveness will become more and more lethal. Such weapons could easily destroy large land armies, and any above ground land based facilities. Of course both combatants will be striving to develop counter measures against these new and deadly weapons. And, the weapons race will accelerate.
          In short, a new world war would be a cataclysmic event. It would be fought by a whole new set of weapons at sea, in the air, in space and on the ground. On the plus side, if there is one, I don't think cities will be ravished just for the sake of destroying them.  Many studies following WWII has shown that the mass bombing of cities really did not achieve the objectives that the leaders of Strategic air-power hoped for. On the other hand the destruction of strategic targets was effective.  
          Let's just hope that the leaders of nations in the future will be able to avoid another global war.  That's a lot to hope for, but as they say hope reigns supreme.