Friday, December 16, 2016

Pity the New President

     The new President is entering office with a mountain of foreign and domestic problems that would tackle the wisdom of Salomon.  A series of bad decisions over the last two administrations have led us into a mess in the middle east, a resurgent and expansionist Russia, a nuclear North Korea, a China that is growing more and more aggressive, and Iran that is on it's way to becoming nuclear. We seem to have made the wrong decision in most cases on the foreign front. We invaded Iraq and destabilized the middle east for, as it turned out, no good reason. Then, when we had taken on the job of nation building in that country, we elected a new President and promptly pulled out and left a vacuum that radical elements were quick to fill.  
    Syria is nothing but a mess with Russia and Iran now the leading figures in that area. The new President really has no good options opened to him. We stood by while Russia and Iran created a mammoth refugee problem and kept a brutal dictator in power. 
    China has weaponized islands, some of them man made, in territory that isn't theirs and seem to setting up the conditions where they will claim sovereignty. This really effects the trade of our allies and impacts on our desire to keep the seas open for free trade.  They recently captured an American drone that was mapping the ocean floor in clearly international waters. Now they are rattling their sabres over the situation concerning Taiwan. Again, no good options are open when the other guy gets belligerent short of force. 
    Russia has moved in and captured the Crimea, taking it from the Ukraine, who didn't have the power to oppose them. Still doesn't.  Following that they have moved troops and equipment into eastern Ukraine and are making moves to annex that territory into Russia. And what did we do? Nothing, except wring our hands. We refuse to equip the Ukraine with the means for them to defend their territory because it might offend Russia. What does our new President do now. No good options. 
     Iran signed an agreement with the west to restrain their nuclear program for lifting of sanctions. With that went the release of billions of dollars to Iran. The sanctions are supposed to be re-instated if Iran didn't adhere to the conditions of the agreement. Guess what? They have already broken some of the conditions. What was done about it? Nothing.  Our allies have too much of stake in selling arms to Iran to make them angry. So, nothing gets done. What does the new President do? No good options. 
    North Korea has developed the nuclear bomb and is far along in development of a missile that could reach the United States. They already can threaten our allies in the Pacific.  North Korea is being run by a psycho that doesn't like us or any of our friends. What's our options now? None that are good. 
   On the home front the new President is faced with real problems in trying to get the economy moving again. The goal is creation of REAL jobs that pay wages sufficient for a family to live on. But, a number of factors stand in his way. The manufacturing jobs that used to provide those kinds of benefits have either escaped the high labor and regulatory costs in the United States by fleeing to foreign lands or have been automated. Robots now do what people were once paid good money to accomplish. He has mentioned raising the tariffs on foreign produced products to level the playing field. Another thing he has mentioned is a punitive "tax" on goods manufactured by American Companies in foreign lands. I have no idea how will get any of these proposals through the congress. Most economists seem to thing they are very bad ideas. What is needed will not have an immediate impact. In fact, lowering taxes and significantly reducing regulations may not pay off until this Presidents first four years are up.  I pity the uproar when he can't deliver the jobs that he promised in the rust belt in a short time.
     He will also face the problems of a massive public debt, Social Security that is really already broke, and other entitlement programs that are sopping the nations wealth. 
     In addition we have a significant balance of trade deficit that is growing to unstainable  level.
     I pity the poor guy who moves into the White House and has to face the world that he has inherited.