Friday, March 6, 2015

Chapter 3-What if Obama had been President when----

     Adolf Hitler, climbed to power on the promise of returning Germany to it's former place as a world power after the humiliation of  the WWI defeat and the terms of the Peace Treaty that assured that she would be mired in deep economic slumps for years. He rebuilt the German's armed forces and proceeded to take back territory that had been stripped from Germany as result of the treaty. He then moved to bring Austria into the Reich and then bluffed his way into capturing the Sudetenland from Czechoslovakia. All this time the western powers set and watched. In fact the English were complicit in ceding of the Sudetenland to Germany, when Hitler promised Chamberlain that this acquisition would be the last of German ambitions. He had a piece of paper signed by Hitler to proof it.  
     Hitler then signed a non-aggression pact with Joseph Stalin with a secret proviso specifying zones of influence between the two nations concerning all of eastern and northern Europe including Poland, the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. It was agreed that Germany's zone would include western Poland and the USSR's would include the eastern half
    On September 1, 1939 Germany invaded Poland, based on a false pretext of Polish soldiers having attacked some German outpost, The Gleiwitz incident. 
      Nine days later the Soviets moved to occupy the eastern parts of Poland. The Soviet government announced it was acting to protect the Ukrainians and Belorussians who lived in the eastern part of Poland. (Sound familiar). 
     Britain had signed mutual defense pact with Poland, the British-Polish Pact of Mutual Assistance on 25 August. In this accord, Britain committed itself to the defense of Poland, guaranteeing to preserve Polish independence.  On September 3, 1939, Britain and France declared war on Germany, and the second European War was on. 
    As war progressed the German army overran France in a matter of weeks and almost destroyed the British army before a good part of it was rescued at Dunkirk. Britain was now isolated and all alone in it's fight with Germany. They are an island nation and depend heavily on imports of food and other essentials to maintain their existence. Without outside help it is doubtful that England could have survived the first couple years of the war. 
    Roosevelt's sentiments were well know. In October 1937, he gave the "Quarantine" speech aiming to contain aggressive nations. He proposed that warmongering states be treated as a public health menace and be quarantined.  So it isn't really surprising that Roosevelt jumped into the fray with both feet on the side of the British, as he could foresee the threat that the Nazis projected on the western democracies. He did every thing he could to support the British, the Chinese and the Soviets, short of declaring war. He was determined that the British would not be defeated. Some of his feeling might have been swayed by his personal friendship with Churchill. 
     Roosevelt was a visionary and detected the growth of military powers in Japan when they invaded Manchuria in 1931. In an effort to build up the Navy he commissioned the building of the USS Yorktown, launched 4 April, 1936 and USS Enterprise, launched 3 October 1938, reportedly by diverting funds from the WPA.  Later he commissioned the building of the USS Hornet, which was launched 14 December, 1940.  After Pearl Harbor these three carriers were the only significant power in the Pacific. 
     In 1939 he allowed the French to place huge orders with the American aircraft industry on a cash-and-carry basis. But, the aircraft they ordered was not ready at the time of France's collapse in May 1940, so Roosevelt arranged in June 1940 for the French orders to be sold to Britain.
     The fall of Paris shocked the public and the isolationist sentiment declined. In July 1940 he appointed two interventionist Republicans to the cabinet as Secretaries of War and Navy.  Roosevelt asked for and got the nation's first ever peacetime draft.  
    The British ran out of money, so in March 1941 he pushed the Lend Lease Agreement through Congress, which would direct massive military and economic aid to Britain, the Republic of China and later the Soviet Union. 
     The sea lanes in the north Atlantic were treacherous for any shipping carrying supplies to Britain due to the intense U-Boat activity and the British needed more help in protecting the convoys carrying those supplies. Roosevelt had stated that America should be the "Arsenal of Democracy". On September 2, 1940, he openly defied the Neutrality Acts by passing the Destroyers for Bases Agreement, which transferred 50 WWI destroyers to Britain in exchange for basing rights in the British Caribbean Islands.  
     The American Navy was dispatched to protect convoys in the western Atlantic and they were actively involved before America was in the war. In April, 1941, Roosevelt extended the Pan-American Security Zone east almost as far as Iceland. British troops occupied Iceland after the fall of Denmark but, the USA was persuaded to provide forces to relieve them. American war ships began escorting Allied convoys in the western Atlantic as far as Iceland and had several hostile encounters with U-Boats. Tropical Atlantic had become dangerous for unescorted American as well as British cargo ships. On May 21, the SS Robin Moor, an American vessel carrying no military supplies was torpedoed, shelled and sunk by U-69.  Roosevelt did refuse Churchill's request that the American warships extend their protection into the eastern Atlantic however.
     On December 7, 1941 and Hitler's declaration of war on the United States, the Sino-Japanese and European wars became a world war. 
     That was what Roosevelt did, but what would Obama have done from 1933 until America entered the war at the very end of 1941? The answer, based on his record is---none of the above. Obama considers himself a peacemaker and would have spent what time he gave to foreign affairs trying to negotiate, although he would have more concerned with domestic affairs. If Obama had been President in the 30's he would faced with same domestic problems that plagued Roosevelt. Massive unemployment and a severely depressed stock market.  That's where almost his energy would be spent. I don't think he could have juggled the demands of foreign policy problems along with the internal problems facing the nations. He would likely have tried the same kind of remedies that Roosevelt employed on the domestic front, with little more success than Roosevelt achieved.
     It is hard to know what would have transpired from about 1941 and later, because the events after that depend mostly on what other nations did. Given the nature of Obama's actions in the Pacific and Hitler's whims, there were many courses this alternate history could have followed.  One is based on the proposition that Japan still felt it was necessary to attack the US and the other that the empire felt it didn't need to neutralize the US to achieve it's objective in the Pacific.  It is quite possible that the Japanese would not instigated a war with the United States as they saw no need to. They were getting their way in the Pacific. However, I think the Japanese felt that the acquisition of the Philippines was essential to their security and goals in the Pacific. So it is highly likely that there would have been a Pearl Harbor, or something like it. We would have been thrust into a war that we were totally unprepared for. In addition, Hitler, using whatever logic he used in the actual timeline, would have declared war on the United States in the wake of the Japanese declaration. 
      It is almost certain that England would have starved into accepting the German terms in order to survive. Hitler did not want the British Isles, his focus was to the east and the vast agricultural potential and natural resources of Russia. All he wanted was for England to get out of the way and let him have the run of Europe. 
        America would have entered any war without an army or navy of any consequence. As a result the war in Europe would only involve the Soviets and the Germans for at least a year, or possibly longer, before the Americans could lend any appreciable aid. Rommel would have ran rough shod over the British in Africa, captured Egypt and taken control of the Suez Canal without American supplies of arms.  
     Germany and the Soviets would have been in a death struggle, where the winner would become the masters of all of Europe. I'm not sure who would have won, but either way it would spell disaster for America. 
     If the Germans won, the German, Japanese and Italian Axis powers would have domination over a great part of the world. If the Soviets won, they would then turn on the Japanese, their traditional enemy, and take control of all of Europe and now the Asian sphere.  No matter what, we were next. 
     German scientists were working on advance weapon systems that could threaten America. The jet powered aircraft, ballistic missiles, and atomic bombs. With little budget for national defense during the thirties America would have been left far behind in the development and deployment of advanced weapons. 
    There is just too many branches in this alternate history to predict with certainty at all. If Obama had been President, one thing is for sure. We would have a far different past that we have now.