Being the great prognosticator that I am, I felt it was my duty to give my impression of the latest round of GOP debates hosted by Fox, without the Donald.
First off, for some reason, it seemed that all the other candidates got significantly more time on the air that was allowed in the previous debates. Most of them took advantage of it and made a better case for themselves than they had previously.
In my opinion, the winners of this debate were the Governors. I think all of them got to express their vision with a little more vigor than I had seen previously. I thought the biggest winner among the Governors was Bush. I really don't think it's going to help him in any immediate way, but if he can keep this more forceful tone and demeanor for the rest of the way, it's possible that he could become a factor in this race. He certainly has the war chest for a long run.
The Senators are all burdened with the same set of problems. They all have a voting record where they have had to compromise to some extent in order get something else they wanted. Or, perhaps they have actually changed their minds. And, those votes and positions are being used to attack the other. Cruz and Rubio where at odds all evening, throwing each others voting records at each other like hand grenades. It seems that the contest is to see who is the most conservative. Cruz probably wins that battle.
Rubio's current stand on immigration is a little to the left of the other Senators so he hurts in that arena with the very conservative voter. However, I think his position will play much better in the general election.
To me Donald Trump is an enigma, as he seems to be for all the political pundits. He makes statements he can't possibly backup, does a complete switch on positions he held earlier, seems to insult everybody in sight, and still is on top of all the polls. All the experts are waiting for the shine to rub off, resulting in his fading in the polls, with one of the other candidates, probably Rubio, ascending. Bill O'Reilly interviewed Trump on his show. Trump's main retort on so many of the difficult questions was a restatement of how he's ahead in the polls. The Republican establishment is afraid that he will carry this momentum on through the nomination process and end up as the Republican candidate, and he'll bring the GOP crashing around down around him in the general. Not a groundless fear I'm afraid.
But, the Donald has dumbfounded all the political experts to this point, so who knows. He certainly packs in the crowds wherever he speaks. He's like a magnet for the people who really feel that we're loosing our countries honor, standing and core values. He certainly has taped into those feelings. But, the big city folks, especially cities like NY and SF don't seem to share that feeling. But, the Republicans are not likely to carry the big northeaster states anyway, so I'm not sure it matters. Of course California is a lost cause as far as the Republicans are concerned in the general election. Those states are dominated by the big city votes and makes the more conservative inland populace irrelevant. With his in your face style and his put down of the establishment in Washington, he just might find his way into the White House.
