Is there a future for the Republican Party at the national level or is destined to become irrelevant; remember the Whigs? It seems that every time the party seems to be written off, it comes bounding back. However, the resurgence is usually just a rebellion against the Dems and some particular unpopular law that they have rammed though congress and got signed by the President. Currently that's Obama care (Affordable Care Act) and it's impact. It seems now that most of the Democrats running for office never heard of it. That issue may result in the Republicans taking control of the Senate as well as the House. It seems to me that this gain may be only temporary as the pain of the ACA is absorbed by the population. I'm afraid that the Democrat's basic constituency will regain the upper hand and the liberals will come back into power.
To my eyes the Party has a couple of issues that must be addressed, and somehow come to terms with, or they will become the loyal opposition party in perpetuity. They must deal with the advantage the Democrats hold with women, and the huge support for the Democrats from the African-American and the Latino populations. The Republicans must approach and develop a plan and approach to convince these groups that the Republicans are not their enemy. These are the three cornerstones the Democrats have used to move into the White House in the last elections and will ride these groups into power in the foreseeable future unless the party wakes up and makes some fundamental changes in some of it's positions. To make matters worse for the Republicans, the Latino and African-American populations are an ever growing group of voters that will determine the future of national politics in America in the coming years, especially the Latinos.
The way our system of government is set up leads to a two party system. There really is no viable alternative. That is largely due to the fact the our President is separately elected by the electoral college and must receive a majority vote from that body. One of the downsides of that system is what would be third or fourth parties in a parliamentary system, end up having to find their way into one of the major parties if they are to have a voice. And, if they are vocal enough and have a fairly large following in a few key states, they can end up having an out of proportion influence on the parties platform and election process. A quick view of history will tell you that a few third party candidates have had an influence on the election; the Bull Moose Party, Ross Perot's run for the White House, comes to mind, but they have never placed a candidate in the White House. In addition there have been few third party members of congress over the years. All this leads to a party whose core members are socially and fiscally liberal and a party whose members tend to be fiscally conservative and attracts the socially conservative as well.
The Democrats core base is generally comprised of a couple of groups consisting of the overtly liberal constituency (think San Francisco) and the ever growing receivers of the entitlements championed so liberally by the Dems. I'm not sure that the Republicans really have much of a chance of luring that group into a Party that preaches self sufficiency, fiscal responsibility, national defense as a top priority and independence from government control to the extent possible. The conservative Republicans and the liberal wing of the Democratic Party have little in common and it's likely to stay that way. They are on opposite ends of the pole on such items as defense spending, infrastructure development, government intrusion into private business, the proliferation of entitlement programs, and whole host of other issues.
The religious right occupies a unique position in the Republican party. They view themselves as a great strength, but to me they are the Achilles heel of the party. The Republican candidates have a problem, stemming from the strong influence the religious right has captured in the party, and the political clout they wield in a number of states, especially the southern states. The candidates believe that to be nominated they must embrace the religious right, or at least not alienate them. However, in the general elections they must now move toward the social center to appeal to the voters at large. The nation, as a whole, is not in sync with the religious rights position on some key social issues, especially on abortion, which is the anchor on which the Democrats hang their "War on Women" banner around the Republicans necks. The two biggest issues the religious right champions are both religious in nature. Anti-abortion and anti-gay marriage.
From all the polls it is clear that the majority of the American people agree, in general, with the Republicans stand on fiscal issues. They believe in fiscal responsibility in government and the goal of a balanced budget. And, like their family finances, the government shouldn't spend money it hasn't got. However, there is a condition to this; they don't want to balance the budget by sacrificing whatever perk the government hands out to their own person or clan.
One of the biggest problems the Republicans have is overcoming the hard right position held by the religious fundamentalists who would totally outlaw abortion. That position has found its way into the Republican platform and is a millstone around any candidate running for President in the general election. In many ways the abortion issue parallels the fight during the prohibition era between the "Dries" and the "Wets". It is considered by many that the hard position of the "Dries" for the total ban on all forms of intoxicating drink let to the revolution against the Volstead Act resulting in it being repealed. They believe if the "Dries" had modified their position to some extent the Act would still be in place.
The Democrats have used this plank in the party platform to fling an accusation at the Republicans that they wish to dis-empower women. They have made this central to the women's rights campaign, "War on Women", and they have been very successful. This position, and the Democrat's exploitation of it, has resulted in a lot of women, a big majority of young women, voting Democrat. With women constituting roughly half the voters, that is a big hurdle to get over.
The Republicans must recognize that there will never be a constitutional amendment; the right wings fond hope, to place a ban on any form of abortion. Not now, not ever. You will never get the three fourths approval to accomplish that from the states, even if you elect a congress that would pass it; and not very likely. And until then, the courts will hold sway on this issue. Neither the congress not the President will have the final say.
The Party should develop a strong position to address the issues facing the modern American women, and not some fanciful idea of the June Cleaver stay at home mom as the typical woman. The Party should address and support measures which help the modern woman achieve all she is capable of along with the requirements of the family. The issues of the single mom, child care and other issues need to addressed in a realistic manner that somehow stays within the confines of a balanced budget. Some of the bias for women to vote for the Dems may be modified in the future as more and more women enter the work force and become the taxpayers that have to support the liberal programs.
Another, and maybe biggest, problem the Republicans have is the immigration issue and the Latino vote. The fact of the matter is that the Hispanics have become so numerous in the past few decades that they can, and do in some cases, become the deciding element in any close election. In fact the Mexican vote, almost alone, has swung the biggest state in the union solidly into the Democrat's camp. The people of Latin American heritage, especially Mexicans, in general, do not want any tight immigration laws on the books. Nor to have the ones on the books enforced. Almost all of them are only removed from illegals by one or two generations and they want their relations and friends to be able to enter the country at will. Not only to enter the country, but become voters fairly quickly. The Republicans stance on illegal immigration has pushed these people into the Democrats camp. The Democrats are glad of the support and the large number of votes they bring. Consequently the Republicans lose big time to the Latino vote, something like 90% in the last election.
Within the Republican Party there is fair number of members that want to close the border and kick every illegal out of the country, and do it now. They actually don't represent the majority of the membership which are open, in a limited way, to the idea of providing a path to stay in the country legally and eventually to attain citizenship. But, in general the Republicans would like to see the borders strengthened and recent border crashers caught and deported. But, people that serve in the military with honor, teenagers that grew up in this country and know no other should perhaps be given consideration. Such a position is the only chance that the Party has of gaining back some of the Latino vote.
And, like a lot of issues in the Republican plank on social issues that ship has sailed. Look around today and you see Latinos as Mayors, Governors and other high political positions throughout the border states and beyond. Pretty soon they will be the majority group in many states, including California and Texas, the two largest states in America. A certain pragmatism must enter into party politics. And, after all, this issue isn't what the Republican Party is all about is it.
So where should the party sink it's roots. I would suggest that the model of Theodore Roosevelt provides the kind of thinking that should become one of the bedrocks of the Party. The recent meltdown of major banking and financial institutions caused by questionable, likely illegal practices of it's top executives is a case in point. Theodore would have come down on these people like the hammer of Thor. But, nothing has happened to the people who engineered this breakdown. In fact these same people have received bonuses and raises as a reward for getting the government to bail them out. I don't think the party addressed the issue at all. A few Senators and Representatives did, but they got no support from their party that I could see.
Anyone that has been keeping up with the business news of late is well aware of the stampede of mergers that have been taking place. It seems we are moving into a position where very few companies will dominate the entire market, especially the most critical markets. Government does have a role in making sure that markets remain free and open to competition. Small business should be encouraged to the maximum extent. No industry should be dominated by just a few companies so that they can set the conditions and dictate the prices for the the services and goods they provide.
The basic message of fiscal responsibility along with the commitment to a strong military, a sound infrastructure, assuring a free market for goods and ideas, improving our global commerce positions, a rational approach to the nations health care, welfare of it's citizens and Social Security should be at the core positions of the party, and either rise or fall on that platform.
The Democrats have used this plank in the party platform to fling an accusation at the Republicans that they wish to dis-empower women. They have made this central to the women's rights campaign, "War on Women", and they have been very successful. This position, and the Democrat's exploitation of it, has resulted in a lot of women, a big majority of young women, voting Democrat. With women constituting roughly half the voters, that is a big hurdle to get over.
The Republicans must recognize that there will never be a constitutional amendment; the right wings fond hope, to place a ban on any form of abortion. Not now, not ever. You will never get the three fourths approval to accomplish that from the states, even if you elect a congress that would pass it; and not very likely. And until then, the courts will hold sway on this issue. Neither the congress not the President will have the final say.
The Party should develop a strong position to address the issues facing the modern American women, and not some fanciful idea of the June Cleaver stay at home mom as the typical woman. The Party should address and support measures which help the modern woman achieve all she is capable of along with the requirements of the family. The issues of the single mom, child care and other issues need to addressed in a realistic manner that somehow stays within the confines of a balanced budget. Some of the bias for women to vote for the Dems may be modified in the future as more and more women enter the work force and become the taxpayers that have to support the liberal programs.
Another, and maybe biggest, problem the Republicans have is the immigration issue and the Latino vote. The fact of the matter is that the Hispanics have become so numerous in the past few decades that they can, and do in some cases, become the deciding element in any close election. In fact the Mexican vote, almost alone, has swung the biggest state in the union solidly into the Democrat's camp. The people of Latin American heritage, especially Mexicans, in general, do not want any tight immigration laws on the books. Nor to have the ones on the books enforced. Almost all of them are only removed from illegals by one or two generations and they want their relations and friends to be able to enter the country at will. Not only to enter the country, but become voters fairly quickly. The Republicans stance on illegal immigration has pushed these people into the Democrats camp. The Democrats are glad of the support and the large number of votes they bring. Consequently the Republicans lose big time to the Latino vote, something like 90% in the last election.
Within the Republican Party there is fair number of members that want to close the border and kick every illegal out of the country, and do it now. They actually don't represent the majority of the membership which are open, in a limited way, to the idea of providing a path to stay in the country legally and eventually to attain citizenship. But, in general the Republicans would like to see the borders strengthened and recent border crashers caught and deported. But, people that serve in the military with honor, teenagers that grew up in this country and know no other should perhaps be given consideration. Such a position is the only chance that the Party has of gaining back some of the Latino vote.
And, like a lot of issues in the Republican plank on social issues that ship has sailed. Look around today and you see Latinos as Mayors, Governors and other high political positions throughout the border states and beyond. Pretty soon they will be the majority group in many states, including California and Texas, the two largest states in America. A certain pragmatism must enter into party politics. And, after all, this issue isn't what the Republican Party is all about is it.
So where should the party sink it's roots. I would suggest that the model of Theodore Roosevelt provides the kind of thinking that should become one of the bedrocks of the Party. The recent meltdown of major banking and financial institutions caused by questionable, likely illegal practices of it's top executives is a case in point. Theodore would have come down on these people like the hammer of Thor. But, nothing has happened to the people who engineered this breakdown. In fact these same people have received bonuses and raises as a reward for getting the government to bail them out. I don't think the party addressed the issue at all. A few Senators and Representatives did, but they got no support from their party that I could see.
Anyone that has been keeping up with the business news of late is well aware of the stampede of mergers that have been taking place. It seems we are moving into a position where very few companies will dominate the entire market, especially the most critical markets. Government does have a role in making sure that markets remain free and open to competition. Small business should be encouraged to the maximum extent. No industry should be dominated by just a few companies so that they can set the conditions and dictate the prices for the the services and goods they provide.
The basic message of fiscal responsibility along with the commitment to a strong military, a sound infrastructure, assuring a free market for goods and ideas, improving our global commerce positions, a rational approach to the nations health care, welfare of it's citizens and Social Security should be at the core positions of the party, and either rise or fall on that platform.
