Population Growth and It's consequences

There are many events that could occur in our future that could have a catastrophic result on the human population, or all life forms for that matter.  The threat of a massive volcano eruption, so large that it would spew ashes and soot into the air  high enough and with volume to cover the earth and shut out the sun for months, if not years.  Such a volcano is sitting under Yellowstone National Park right now. A large asteroid striking the earth and repeating the event that resulted in the extension of the dinosaurs. A massive epidemic of global proportions caused by some unleashed mutated or man made virus that defies all efforts to control it.  All of these could result in the extinction of the human species, or at least a significant die off of same. Think of the Black Plaque that enveloped Europe in the mid 15th century and reduced the human population by about 50%.

Any of these events could happen within a few years, or not for thousands of years. 

There is a major problem facing the human race today that is clear to anyone that is willing to look; and it's more certain and closer in time than we like to think . That is the exploding population on this place we call home; the Earth.   The graph below shows the past and forecast population of the world through 2050 as projected by the UN.  The graph is a little misleading unless you look closely. It's on a logarithmic scale. 

 Predicted World Population Growth 

Shown in Millions

Worlds population growth to the present  

It should be clear that we're headed for trouble. The population of the world in 1950 was about 2.1 billion and it has increased to about 7 billion in just over a half a century. Within a young persons lifetime today the world is projected to grow to about 10 to 12 billion people or almost double. There are more people alive today than lived in all of past history. The population of the world has been doubling about every 50 years. 

The earth just does not have the ability to support an an ever growing population.  Mother nature will prevail in the end. Starvation and the resulting diseases will keep the population in check as resources are consumed. This will hit hardest in those areas where the population is expected to grow faster.  They also happen to be the least technically advanced, poorly educated and poorest areas of our globe. Africa and the Oceanic countries.  

There will be food riots and other unrest as the demand for resources becomes more and more demanding.  Governments will exercise greater control of the resources of their countries as they try to cope with the problems.  Many of the them will become very oppressive, as history has shown. The developed countries will be no exception.  They consume most of the world's resources as it is, and the growing population of the globe puts a great strain on the available supply. A very likely result will be wars between nations competing for land and resources.  

This is not a new insight into the coming apocalypse. In the end it might result in forced population control by various means. The future doesn't look rosy folks. 

But, there is another side to the story. One that is just as frightening. Take a look a Europe which already showing a declining population and North America which is starting to slow down in growth. North America is sort of unique in the most of the growth and projected growth is due to immigration from the south. At first one might think that this is good thing. But, a bit of reflection says that this trend spells big trouble for the governments and societies of Europe and North America.  In fact, if the world starts limiting population, that will spread the problem to the globe. 

We in America and those folks in Europe have, in the last 50 or 60 years, by passing a massive number of entitlement programs, instituted an economic model that depends on an every growing work force.  Social Security, Medicare, the new Obama-Care, massive retirement packages for teachers and other public employees, and on and on depend on the growing number wage earners to feed the pyramid scheme that we have created.  In all of these schemes the current workers support the recipients of the government programs. There is myth that prevails that the recipients of these programs are merely getting back what they put in to the program. This is especially true for Social Security, one of the greatest ponzi schemes of all time.  A little calculation will show that isn't so.  The retired community draws far more from that program than they ever contributed, by many times. All of the entitlement programs ride on the back of the wage earners.  

With a shrinking population the system reaches the point where there as many people living off the taxpayer as there are taxpayers. In fact if you look a Europe's population projections, there will more receivers than workers in the not to distant future.  We're facing the same problem here a home. We have a large  segment of the  population now, the Baby Boomers, that are entering the retirement phase of their lives.  They will become recipients of the entitlements rather that contributors. The problem is that the generations that follow them are not nearly as large. To make matters worse, the "Baby Boomers" are likely to live a long time. In fact they will likely live as many years in retirement as they worked, or even longer. Compounding the problem is that the following generations are likely to be even smaller, as more women enter the work force and don't want, or need, the constraints on their careers that a large family would present.     

We could mitigate some of that pain if we acted to change the rules now. But, that is not likely to happen. The public has become enamored with government handouts and will not entertain any changes to the system that has the potential for a reduction in benefits. Even a mention of possible Social Security reform and the AARP is up in arms. Any discussion of somehow reducing welfare and any other government entitlement raises the hackles of the liberals, the recipients of government handouts, and a fire storm of protests results. 

So have fun folks.  Enjoy the world now.  Things may not be as good for our great grandchildren.