Sunday, November 8, 2020

The immediate future for the Biden Presidency.

We have a new President. Trump can kick and scream all he wants, and he has  reasons to do so, but he has lost this election. He can look in the mirror and see the reason. One friendly analyst opined that he lost the election because of his poor performance in the first debate. He obviously didn't come prepared for a debate and Joe Biden did. He proved himself to be a poor debater. Any high school student on the debate team would have done better. I think it was more than that. The Biden campaign was able to pin a lot of the fault for the deaths and spread of the corona virus on him. They charged him repeatedly with poor handling of it. And, it seemed to stick. He was not able to shake that image. His continual public denial of the seriousness of the virus got him into trouble and kept him there, even though he knew it was serious and is on record as knowing it.

That there is voter fraud is a given. I'm sure there has never been a election where that didn't happen. There were political machines in the big cities in the not to distant past, especially New York and Chicago that are legendary. They were all Democratic machines, designed to make sure that not only did the party prevail, but to make sure the right person was the candidate. FDR was associated with Tammini Hall in his early career and JFK probably owes his election to the Chicago mafia. Almost all the big cities on the east and west coast are controlled by Democrats. They set up the polling places, decide the rules for the election and end up being in charge of the counting. It has been alleged, by a guest on Fox, that 160,000 ballots showed up mysteriously one night when everybody in the counting room has gone home. It was up to the representative for the Democratic Secretary of State whether they would be counted. Of course they don't see anything wrong that 100% of the ballots are for Biden. There is no way to trace any thing like that after the ballots are separated from the envelops. After all the ballots themselves are anonymous. Proving fraud is darn near impossible. And, they see nothing wrong with banning Republican Party observers into the hall where the votes are being counted, in spite of the law that allowed for that. 

 So what does the near term future look like for President Biden and the Democratic Party?

First of all Biden will come into office with top people in the government not trying to get him removed before he is even sworn in. He will not face a large hostile civil service. There will be no calls for impeachment. He will not face top officials in the FBI doing everything they can to find criminal activities concerning him and his top people. They will not try to trap his people in a lie so they can prosecute for perjury. He will not be at war with the media. They love him. He will get favorable press for everything he does and doesn't do. In short he will enter a very friendly environment to start his term as opposed to the situation Trump found himself in.

Maybe the division within his own party might very well be his biggest problem. The house seems to be dominated by the far left and they are on a straight line to a socialist  agenda. All kinds of ideas are spouting from their mouths. De-fund the police to the point of eliminating them altogether, open the borders and let anyone in, forgive all student loans, provide a free public education all the way through university, institute strict environmental laws including the total elimination of fossil fuels and free medical care for every one, even illegals, among others.  How they are going to pay for all of that is not addressed. Somehow taxing the rich seems to be the pat answer for some. But, they are not the whole party, just the most vocal.

On the plus side, Biden is deemed a negotiator. He seems to be well liked by people on both sides of the isle. He is well versed in the politics of Washington, having been involved in it for most of his life. He will probably be successful in getting some of his agenda through, in spite of the left leaning House and a Republican Senate.

He is not likely to say things off the cuff that will get him in trouble. He's been around too long to make the dumb statements that Trump was so prone to make. The openness to the President that the press enjoyed under Trump is something he will not do. Trumps hourly tweets kept the media busy and gave lots of things for them to discuss. The press will get what the Biden team wants them to get, when they want them to get it, and it will be carefully vetted and scripted. They will have to work to find something to write about. Most of the press will just publish the press releases. If they follow Obama's lead there will be very few press conferences and only carefully staged interviews with friendly moderators.

A split government might be the best thing for Biden. It will give him the excuse he needs to fight off the left wing of his party who are going to be ferocious in the pursuit of getting their agenda into law. If he gets a Democratic Senate due to the run off races in Georgia, then the left will pressure him unmercifully. Woe if something happens to Biden and Harris becomes President. Then you will see a real war between parties.

A byproduct of his election is his ability to put people in key positions to stop any investigation in the mess involving his son. The Senate will have to be careful as not to confirm some one who has an agenda to open up that can of worms surrounding the allegations against Trump that have been going on for 4 years by the Dems. There are people who would love to do that.

At this time it looks like the Republicans will still control the Senate. That will put a stopper on a lot of the left wing fancies. Joe's promise of a large increase in taxes will not fly. Of course he can propose them and then blame the Republicans when they don't get passed. After all, according to him, he will only tax the rich and the greedy corporations.

The Senate will also put a stop to extreme left wing appointments to the cabinet and the Judiciary. 

The Majority leader of the Senate will set the Republican agenda for the next four years. With a Republican President he took a back seat. Now the Majority Leader will step up as the top Republican in the government. The Senate has a lot of power. More so than the house. Treaties, cabinet and judicial appointments run through the Senate. 

Biden actually comes in at a good time for him. A vaccine for the virus is on the way and will be probably available to the public sometime in the first or second quarter of next year. When that happens, that will unleash the economy and there will be a dramatic upturn. In addition, medication for those infected are being developed with a lot of success. Restaurants, sporting events, bars and all kinds of businesses will open and start doing business again. It will take a few years to fully recover, but it will happen on Biden's watch.  And, just as God made little green apples the Democrats will take credit for the recovery. The only thing that will stop it, is for the left wing to get their agenda through and kill the recovery or, Biden repeals all the regulatory reductions that Trump put into place or both.

The one thing that will likely be on the table and successfully negotiated will be the subject of medical coverage. I think that the Republicans would be more than willing to come to a agreement with Biden on medical coverage if the he can get the Democratic house to go along. Which is questionable. They want government controlled universal health care. Can Biden control the Speaker.

The Dems will have to do some really stupid things to not have a good chance at their party winning another term in as President. They can be riding the wave of the benefits put in by Trump that resulted in a world class economy, a face up to China, Russia and Iran, bringing jobs back home, making America an oil exporting nation instead of buyer and negotiating more favorable trade deals for the United States among other things. All Biden has to do is, do nothing. But, if the Dems are stupid enough to select one of the radical left as their candidate in 2024 then all bets are off.

Although the second term will likely not be Biden. His age will probably limit him to one term. The favorite candidate for the office for the next election is always the current VP. Of course four years is a long time and other Dems may very well rise to the forefront. Who the Republicans choose is up for grabs. The betting would be for a woman, but I'm not so sure that either Harris or whoever the Republicans pick is a lock. Many a candidate has come out of the woodwork before. We'll see.